Pokémon TCG Chaos Rising Price Prediction: Will Prices Rise or Fall?

Is Pokémon TCG: Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising about to recover, or will prices continue to fall?

After reviewing current card prices, sealed-product performance, launch-period opinions and more recent market commentary, our view at Akemon is that Chaos Rising remains bearish to sideways in the short term. We expect prices to stabilise gradually rather than rebound sharply across the entire set.

The strongest Mega Greninja cards have better recovery potential than the rest of the set, but a good Pokémon or beautiful card does not automatically make every current price a good buying price.

What is Chaos Rising?

Chaos Rising is the fourth main expansion in the Pokémon TCG Mega Evolution series. It was released worldwide on 22 May 2026 and continues the Pokémon Legends: Z-A theme. The English set contains 122 numbered cards: 86 cards in the main set and 36 secret cards.

The set includes five Mega Evolution Pokémon ex, five additional Pokémon ex, 11 Illustration Rares, 18 Ultra Rare Pokémon and Trainer cards, and six Special Illustration Rare Pokémon and Supporter cards. Mega Greninja ex and Mega Floette ex are the headline Pokémon, supported by Mega Pyroar ex, Mega Dragalge ex and Mega Gallade ex.

The official expansion details and product information were checked against Pokémon’s Chaos Rising overview and release announcement.

Current Chaos Rising chase-card prices

The table below uses current US market estimates for raw, ungraded English cards. Malaysian Ringgit conversions use Bank Negara Malaysia’s 20 August 2026 midpoint of approximately US$1 = RM4.0445.

Card	Current market price	Approx. MYR	30-day trend	Change from launch high
Mega Greninja ex SIR #116/86	US$198.70	RM804	Down 17.0%	About 54% below its high
Mega Greninja ex MHR #122/86	US$175.21	RM709	Down 7.4%	About 43% below its high
Cinccino ex SIR #119/86	US$61.55	RM249	Down 4.2%	About 35% below its high
Mega Dragalge ex SIR #118/86	US$39.55	RM160	Down 4.5%	About 49% below its high
Mega Floette ex SIR #117/86	US$32.70	RM132	Up 0.2%	About 48% below its high

Four of these five chase cards declined during the latest 30-day period. Mega Floette ex SIR was effectively flat, rising only 0.2%, which is not yet enough to call a confirmed recovery.

The weakness is broader than a few individual cards. CardPrice estimates that the tracked set market value fell approximately 7.3% over 30 days. It also estimates that the ten most valuable cards represent about 84% of the cost of the full set, confirming that Chaos Rising is unusually dependent on a small number of chase cards.

The most important market signal is the separation between Mega Greninja ex SIR #116 and Mega Greninja ex MHR #122. Although the MHR is technically scarcer, the SIR currently commands the higher raw price. This suggests that collectors are paying heavily for the connected artwork and display appeal—not rarity alone.

Current card prices were checked using CardPrice’s individual listings for Mega Greninja SIR, Mega Greninja MHR, Cinccino SIR, Mega Dragalge SIR and Mega Floette SIR.

What is happening to the booster box?

The Chaos Rising booster box is approximately US$175.23, or about RM709, compared with a recorded high of approximately US$275.73. This represents an all-time decline of roughly 36.5%.

The decline is not surprising. Early scarcity pushed launch prices far above the US$160.99 suggested retail price. Additional supply then reached the market, attention moved to newer expansions, and sellers reduced prices to move inventory. Recent commentary has reported ETBs and Booster Bundles appearing at or below retail price in some US and UK channels.

This is a classic modern-set correction: excitement creates an early premium, but the premium shrinks once real supply becomes visible.

Current sealed pricing was checked using Pokémon Wizard’s Chaos Rising booster-box market data. Card Chill’s July market check was also reviewed for discussion of supply normalisation.

What other collectors and market writers are saying

This is a survey of published market opinions, not a statistically representative poll of all collectors.

The bullish view

Early reviews were highly positive about the nighttime artwork, Mega Evolution theme, Greninja’s popularity and competitive possibilities. Some writers predicted strong six-month returns for chase cards and sealed products. Collectors also liked the connected Froakie, Frogadier and Mega Greninja artwork, which gives the set a memorable identity beyond one isolated card.

The bullish argument remains straightforward:

Greninja is one of the franchise’s most popular Pokémon.
The set contains the first Mega Greninja ex cards.
The SIR has distinctive connected artwork.
The MHR is difficult to pull.
A lower box price may eventually create a healthier entry point for long-term collectors.

The cautious view

More recent analysis is less optimistic about immediate price growth. The booster box is at its recorded low, major chase cards have corrected substantially, and sealed supply has become easier to obtain. Market writers increasingly recommend buying specific singles instead of opening boxes.

One expected-value analysis estimated approximately US$150 of average card value from a US$185 booster box, with wide variation depending on the pulls. Its estimated odds were approximately one SIR per 83 packs, one specific SIR per 496 packs, and one Mega Greninja MHR per 956 packs. These figures are community estimates rather than guaranteed official pull rates, but they explain why opening boxes to target one expensive card is usually poor value.

Source reviewed: TCG Watchtower’s box-value and pull-rate analysis.

Where the two sides agree

Even bullish and cautious commentators generally agree on three points:

Mega Greninja provides the set’s strongest long-term collector demand.
Launch prices contained a large hype and scarcity premium.
Buying a specific single is financially more predictable than opening packs to find it.

Why prices could continue falling

1. More supply is still entering the market

Every newly opened box adds more singles. Restocks and additional print waves also reduce the scarcity premium on sealed products. A second-printing report published shortly after launch correctly expected extra supply to pressure Booster Bundles, boxes and mid-tier singles.

2. New sets compete for the same collector budget

Chaos Rising is surrounded by other Mega Evolution releases and the Pokémon TCG’s 30th-anniversary products. When collectors move money to the next set, sellers may reduce older inventory prices.

3. Most value is concentrated in two cards

Mega Greninja SIR and MHR represent a large share of the set’s value. Outside a small group of chase cards, most cards are inexpensive. A set that depends heavily on one Pokémon is more vulnerable if enthusiasm for that chase cools.

4. Graded supply will increase

More raw cards are being submitted for grading. High gem rates or rapidly expanding PSA populations can reduce the scarcity premium for PSA 10 copies, even when the Pokémon remains popular.

Why prices could eventually recover

1. Greninja demand is genuine

Greninja’s popularity is not created only by this set. That gives the flagship cards a deeper collector base than many ordinary modern chase cards.

2. The correction has already removed much of the launch premium

The two leading Greninja cards are approximately 43% to 54% below their recorded highs. This does not guarantee that the bottom has arrived, but buyers now face less hype risk than they did during release month.

3. The set has a recognisable visual identity

The nighttime Lumiose City theme and connected Greninja evolution artwork make Chaos Rising easier to remember than a set with unrelated chase cards.

4. Sealed product may benefit after printing ends

Modern sealed products often need time before supply becomes genuinely scarce. If Chaos Rising remains popular after it goes out of print, boxes bought near retail may perform better over several years than boxes purchased at launch premiums.

Akemon’s Chaos Rising price prediction

Our prediction is based on the evidence available on 20 August 2026. It is an informed market opinion, not a guaranteed result.

Next one to three months: bearish to sideways

Our base expectation is that the market will experience another 5% to 15% of downside or move sideways around its current range before finding a convincing floor. Additional supply, newer releases and anniversary-related spending are likely to limit a fast rebound.

We expect the booster box to trade mainly around US$160–180, or approximately RM647–728, unless a major restock pushes it temporarily lower. At this stage, we would not chase boxes significantly above that range.

Mega Greninja SIR could move between approximately US$170 and US$210, while the MHR could remain around US$150 to US$185. The SIR may continue outperforming the scarcer MHR because its connected artwork appeals to more collectors.

Six to twelve months: selective recovery

We do not expect every Chaos Rising card to rise together. Our more likely scenario is a selective recovery led by:

Mega Greninja ex SIR #116/86
Mega Greninja ex MHR #122/86
The Froakie–Frogadier–Mega Greninja connected-art set
A small number of character-driven SIRs

Mid-tier cards may remain flat if supply continues increasing. Sealed boxes could begin a gradual recovery only after restocks become less frequent and the market can see that printing is slowing.

Long term: positive, but only at the right entry price

Over a two-to-three-year period, we are cautiously positive about sealed Chaos Rising boxes acquired near retail and the best-condition copies of the two flagship Greninja cards. We are not equally positive about the entire card list.

Our probability-weighted view is:

Scenario	Estimated probability	What it would look like
Base case	60%	Prices stabilise after modest additional weakness; Greninja cards recover selectively over time.
Bull case	25%	Supply dries faster than expected and collector demand produces a strong Greninja-led rebound.
Bear case	15%	Further print waves and stronger new releases cause another broad decline of 20% or more.

Buy singles, open packs or hold sealed?

For a specific card: buy the single. This removes pull-rate risk.
For entertainment: open packs only with a budget you are comfortable spending for the experience.
For sealed collecting: favour boxes close to retail and be prepared for a multi-year holding period.
For grading: inspect centring, corners, edges and surface carefully. Do not value a raw card as though a PSA 10 result is guaranteed.
For sellers: use recent completed sales, not only active asking prices, and account for local Malaysian liquidity.

Malaysian prices may be above or below the converted US reference because of shipping costs, import availability, card condition and local demand. Currency conversion uses Bank Negara Malaysia’s published exchange rate.

Akemon’s final verdict

Chaos Rising is not currently in a confirmed uptrend. The market is still digesting additional supply and unwinding the premium created during launch.

Our position is therefore patient rather than aggressively bullish. We believe the best Mega Greninja cards have genuine long-term collector potential, but we expect the broader set to remain soft until sealed supply tightens. For collectors who want specific cards, current prices are much better than launch prices, yet buying gradually is safer than assuming the first large drop must be the final bottom.

If you would like Akemon to evaluate a Chaos Rising card, send clear photographs of the front and back together with the exact card number. Condition and the specific variant can make a major difference to its realistic resale value.